Spatio-temporal evolution and adaptive cycle of marine economy resilience in Bohai Rim Region

Abstract

The sustainable and healthy development of the marine economy is increasingly restricted by frequent global risk disturbances. Therefore, it is urgent to conduct research on the resilience of marine economic systems to effectively address such crises. Based on scientific connotation of marine economy resilience, we established an evaluation model encompassing four dimensions: resistance, recovery, readjustment, and update. Using the adaptive cycle model, we analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution and stages of marine economy resilience at the regional, provincial, and municipal levels within the Bohai Rim Region from a multi-dimensional perspective. Our findings were as follows: (1) The evolution of the resistance dimension of marine economy resilience in the Bohai Rim Region exhibited higher volatility, while the other dimensions demonstrated favorable development trends. (2) Compared to Tianjin-Hebei and Shandong, Liaoning was more susceptible to disturbances, with the update dimension being the dominant contributor to overall resilience at the provincial level. (3) At the municipal scale, both resistance and update capabilities displayed significant spatial correlation patterns. (4) Cangzhou, Yantai, Binzhou, Weifang, Rizhao, Qinhuangdao and Tangshan experienced both positive and reverse transformation cycle, while the other cities were in a positive cycle. Finally, we proposed targeted policy recommendations for each evolutionary stage. These findings provide theoretical insights and practical foundations for enhancing marine economy resilience in the Bohai Rim Region, promoting the high-quality development, and supporting the construction of a maritime power.