A predictive model for the security and stability of the lithium-ion battery industry chain based on price modal combinations

Abstract

Prices act as crucial market signals within industrial chains, and the smooth transmission of prices has significantly impacts on the safety and stability of the entire chain. This paper considers the lithium-ion battery industry chain as a complex system and uses prices as modal signals to construct an FEEMD-NAR-HMM industrial chain safety and stability prediction model. The research findings are as follows: (1) The lithium-ion industry chain exhibits a typical "price-stability" dissipative structure, where the consistency of price fluctuations within the industry chain has a significant impact on its overall safety and stability. (2) When products at different stages of the lithium-ion industry chain experience simultaneous price increases or decreases, the safety and stability of the industry chain are at a high level. When the transmission smoothness of price fluctuations across different stages of the lithium-ion industry chain is low, the safety and stability of the industry chain are at a low level. (3) In the near future, the lithium-ion industry chain will continue to exposed to volatility risks. The government should implement macroeconomic control measures to stabilize the lithium-ion market and increase research investment in lithium resource recycling to prevent a crisis of lithium resource shortages.