Business-as-usual trends will largely miss 2030 global conservation targets.

IF 5.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Ambio Pub Date : 2024-11-07 DOI:10.1007/s13280-024-02085-6

Ignacio Palomo, Alberto González-García, Paul J Ferraro, Rodan Muradian, Unai Pascual, Manuel Arboledas, James M Bullock, Enora Bruley, Erik Gómez-Baggethun, Sandra Lavorel

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Abstract

To address climate change and global biodiversity loss, the world must hit three important international conservation targets by 2030: protect 30% of terrestrial and marine areas, halt and reverse forest loss, and restore 350 Mha of degraded and deforested landscapes. Here, we (1) provide estimates of the gaps between these globally agreed targets and business-as-usual trends; (2) identify examples of rapid past trend-shifts towards achieving the targets; and (3) link these past trend-shifts to different levers. Our results suggest that under a business-as-usual scenario, the world will fail to achieve all three targets. However, trend-shifts that rapidly "bend the curve" have happened in the past and these should therefore be fostered. These trend-shifts are linked to transformative change levers that include environmental governance, economic factors, values, and knowledge. Further research on trend-shifts, as well as bold action on underlying levers, is urgently needed to meet 2030 global conservation targets.

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一切照旧的趋势将在很大程度上无法实现 2030 年的全球保护目标。

为了应对气候变化和全球生物多样性的丧失，全世界必须在 2030 年前实现三个重要的国际保护目标：保护 30% 的陆地和海洋区域、阻止并扭转森林丧失的趋势、恢复 3.5 亿公顷退化和毁林地貌。在此，我们（1）估算了这些全球商定目标与 "一切照旧 "趋势之间的差距；（2）确定了过去为实现这些目标而快速转变趋势的实例；（3）将这些过去的趋势转变与不同的杠杆联系起来。我们的研究结果表明，在一切照旧的情况下，世界将无法实现所有三个目标。然而，迅速 "弯道超车 "的趋势转变在过去已经发生，因此应予以鼓励。这些趋势转变与转型变革杠杆有关，其中包括环境治理、经济因素、价值观和知识。要实现 2030 年全球保护目标，迫切需要对趋势转变开展进一步研究，并对基本杠杆采取大胆行动。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Ambio 环境科学-工程：环境

CiteScore

14.30

自引率

3.10%

发文量

123

审稿时长

6 months

期刊介绍： Explores the link between anthropogenic activities and the environment, Ambio encourages multi- or interdisciplinary submissions with explicit management or policy recommendations. Ambio addresses the scientific, social, economic, and cultural factors that influence the condition of the human environment. Ambio particularly encourages multi- or inter-disciplinary submissions with explicit management or policy recommendations. For more than 45 years Ambio has brought international perspective to important developments in environmental research, policy and related activities for an international readership of specialists, generalists, students, decision-makers and interested laymen.