Tailings storage facilities in China: Historical failure incidents, existing status, and database-driven quantitative risk assessment

Abstract

Tailings storage facility (TSF) failures in China have historically resulted in downstream consequences, including fatalities, economic harm, and environmental contamination. However, the nation-wide documentation on existing TSFs is incomplete, and the magnitude-frequency statistics of the failures are poorly quantified. These gaps have impeded ongoing efforts of risk assessment and mitigation. This study collates and analyzes new databases on historical TSF failures and existing TSFs in China. We report 143 TSF failures in China over the period 1957–2023, which exceeds the number (∼20) reported in previous studies. Magnitude-frequency statistics indicate that the mean return period for TSF failures in China with at least 10 fatalities is ∼5 years, while for those with released volumes >1 million m³ is ∼16 years. Our review confirms that there are at least 14,217 existing TSFs in China; therefore, the cumulative failure rate of TSFs in China is estimated to be ∼1 %. We supply a database of 1853 TSFs that lists the statistics such as storage volume and dam height. Using these datasets along with downstream demographic statistics, we undertake a regional risk assessment for Jilin Province, which identifies 11 TSFs with intolerable risks. Among these, the most critical TSF poses a potential loss of 175 lives. Our findings provide the most comprehensive picture of TSFs in China to date. We anticipate that this study will advance tailings disclosure practices in China and support screening-level risk assessments by provincial regulators to help prioritize community engagement and risk mitigation efforts.