A day-ahead wind speed correction method: Enhancing wind speed forecasting accuracy using a strategy combining dynamic feature weighting with multi-source information and dynamic matching with improved similarity function

Abstract

Forecasting error of day-ahead wind speed (WS) seriously affects wind power integration and power system security and stability. In this regard, this paper fully considers the spatiotemporal correlation of wind farms (WFs) in different geographical locations, and proposes a day-ahead WS combined correction method that integrates multi-source station dynamic information weighting. Different from the previous WS correction methods, this paper fully considers the dynamic correlation of WS between the WFs, introduces an improved weighted similarity function to screen and dynamically weight the information of WFs with dynamic correlation, and introduces the dynamic weighting feature into the WS correction process. A combined decomposition mechanism is proposed, which combines sequential variational mode decomposition (SVMD) and feature mode decomposition (FMD) models to extract the most relevant trend components and non-stationary components of forecasted and measured WS. A combined correction model is introduced, and a combined architecture of Non-stationary Transformer combined with bidirectional long short-term memory network (Ns-Transformer-BILSTM) is used to correct the stationary WS component. A dynamic matching mechanism of fluctuation components considering improved similarity is proposed for the correction of non-stationary components. The proposed method is applied to several regional WFs in China. The experimental results show that the average correction of N_RMSE, N_MAE and R can reach 2.4 % ∼ 3.7 %, 2.0 % ∼ 3.0 % and 3.3 % ∼ 9.7 %, respectively. The N_RMSE and N_MAE corresponding to the corrected WS of certain individual WFs can be reduced by 10 % and 9 %, respectively, and R can be increased by 33 %.