Projections of the Stroke Burden at the Global, Regional, and National Levels up to 2050 Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Abstract

Background: Stroke is a pressing public health issue worldwide. This study aimed to forecast the future temporal trends and distribution characteristics of the global stroke burden.

Methods and results: Global data on stroke incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years between 1990 and 2021 were obtained from the GBD (Global Burden of Disease) Study 2021. The temporal trends of stroke burden were estimated using various regression models. Gross domestic product per capita was adopted as a predictor in the model to consider the impact of economic development on stroke burden. Projections of stroke burden up to 2050 were generated using the optimal model selected based on the Akaike information criterion, encompassing global, World Bank income levels, national levels, and sex-age groups. In 2050, we projected 21.43 million stroke cases, 159.31 million survivors, 12.05 million deaths, and 224.86 million disability-adjusted life years due to stroke globally. From 2021 to 2050, there was a declining trend in the global age-adjusted stroke rates, with -7% in incidence, -4% in prevalence, -28% in deaths, and -28% in disability-adjusted life years. Upper-middle-income countries were projected to have the most severe stroke burden, followed by lower-middle-income countries, low-income countries, and high-income countries. The stroke burden in over half of the 204 countries and territories was expected to be alleviated from 2022 to 2050. Men and older women worldwide bear higher burden.

Conclusions: Stroke remains a serious global health challenge, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. Targeted implementation of prevention and interventions is imperative across diverse demographic groups.