Climate change increased risk of forest fire, winter storm and technical failure risks related to power transmission lines – a spatial GIS risk assessment at Cologne district, Germany

Abstract

In Central Europe, climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme events and weather variability. We need to better understand the interrelations between natural hazards and related extreme events and their impacts on gray, blue, and green infrastructures. According to literature research, a broad spectrum of hazard impacts can lead to transmission line and tower failures in Germany. A spatial assessment in a case study area in western Germany, using a geographic information system reveals the spatial exposure of forests, settlements, roads, rail, and waterways to transmission line failure. The main purpose of this study is to map this spatial exposure risk. In some districts, there is a higher risk of forest fires ignited by dropping transmission lines and impacts of winter storms or earthquakes.

The result indicates that better integration of climate change and other natural, technical, and man-made hazards is required and needs to be researched. We also need to better understand the linkages with critical infrastructure, such as emergency management, and the different cascades of impact on primary, secondary, and tertiary infrastructure.

The findings can inform fellow scientists, planners, and practitioners on better capturing and applying interconnected risks through spatial assessments. Moreover, the results can also inform operators and emergency managers on preparing for rare and unexpected risks.