Dynamics of urban sprawl: Deciphering the role of land prices and transportation costs in government-led urbanization

Abstract

While the relationship among land price, transportation cost, and urban sprawl under the condition of local governments monopolizing land supply has been rarely discussed in the literature, this paper addresses this gap by hypothesizing based on the monocentric city model. The hypothesis suggests that due to increasing land prices and decreasing transportation costs, urban fringes are more likely to be developed, leading residents to move away from the city center and altering the demographic pattern of urban sprawl. An empirical analysis is conducted using panel data from 104 cities in China, including remote sensing data of urban land construction areas. The results show that high land prices and low transportation costs drive urban sprawl, with varying impacts across cities. The coupling coordination analysis indicates increasing influence of urban sprawl on land prices and transportation costs. These findings suggest the government should address the effects of unplanned urban expansion on these factors. The findings suggest that the government should pay more attention to the effects of unplanned urban expansion on land prices and transportation costs. Understanding the role of local governments in urban planning is crucial for comprehending China's urbanization strategy and its implications on social exclusion, gentrification, high housing prices, and other urban issues.