Rice Cultivation Area, Demographic Trends, and Trade Dynamics for Food Security in Nepal (2011-2021).

Abstract

Rice is the most important staple crop in Nepal, playing a critical role in both the economy and food security. This study analyzes the trends in rice cultivation, production, imports, and exports from fiscal years 2011/2012 to 2021/2022 and also presents population data from the initial and final years. Over the study period, the area of rice cultivation declined by 0.81% annually, while the production grew by 1.5% per year, and the yield improved at a rate of 1.97% per year. Trend analysis indicated no significant changes in cultivation area or production, but a significant positive trend was observed in the yield. Rice import showed a significant annual increase of 5.61% in price value and 12.80% in quantity, while exports also grew by 1.95% in quantity and 2.39% in value. However, exports remain negligible compared to imports. Nepal's rice self-sufficiency ratio (SSR) has declined by 1.15% annually, falling from 92.72% in 2011/2012 to 82.01% in 2021/2022 while its import dependency ratio (IDR) has increased by 5.89% annually. These trends suggest that Nepal is becoming increasingly vulnerable in terms of rice food security. Population dynamics based on two census records revealed a notable 14% rise in the foreign population. This situation underscores the urgent need for policy interventions to address the decline in rice self-sufficiency, labor shortages, and growing import dependency, ensuring sustainable rice production and food security in Nepal.