A Cost-Oriented Score Evaluation Index to Align Probabilistic Forecasting and Uncertain Decision-Making in Power Systems

Abstract

Existing research has shown the inconsistency between point forecasting and deterministic optimization, yet the consistency between probabilistic forecast indices and uncertain optimization has not been investigated. This letter fills this gap by undertaking scenario-based tests to reveal the mismatch and proposing a new cost-oriented score (COS) to indicate whether a probabilistic forecast can lead to a “better” decision-making performance in unit commitment and economic dispatch.