Assessing the predictive value of elevated triglycerides, triglyceride-glucose index (TyG), and TG/HDL ratios for cardiovascular disease and mortality during 20 years of follow-up: Tehran lipid and glucose study

Abstract

Objectives

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally, influenced by a complex interplay of risk factors including lipid disorders and insulin resistance (IR). The triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index and the triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL) ratio have emerged as potential indicators for assessing cardiovascular risk. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of hypertriglyceridemia, the TyG index, and the TG/HDL ratio for mortality and CVD occurrence within an Iranian population.

Design and methods

Conducted within the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study over 20 years, this research analyzed 7,117 participants to assess the association between these lipid biomarkers and CVD risk and mortality. Participants were stratified by their TyG and TG/HDL indices, with Cox proportional hazards models determining risk ratios across three adjusted models considering various demographic and clinical variables.

Results

The study found significant associations between elevated triglycerides, TyG, and TG/HDL levels with increased risks of mortality and CVD during the 20-year follow-up. Specifically, the hazard ratios for CVD events were notably significant in the second triglyceride group (150–250 mg/dL), with a hazard ratio of 1.36 (1.19–1.55) in both Model 1 and Model 2, and in the third group (250–400 mg/dL), with ratios of 1.88 (1.63–2.17) in Model 1, 1.90 (1.65–2.19) in Model 2, and 1.44 (1.24–1.67) in Model 3.

Conclusion

Hypertriglyceridemia, the TyG index, and the TG/HDL ratio are easily calculable and clinically relevant markers for cardiovascular risk assessment. Their integration into routine health evaluations could facilitate early detection and management of at-risk individuals, potentially reducing the incidence and impact of CVD within the community.