A generalized structured coalescent for purifying selection without recombination.

Abstract

Purifying selection is a critical factor in shaping genetic diversity. Current theoretical models mostly address scenarios of either very weak or strong selection, leaving a significant gap in our knowledge. The effects of purifying selection on patterns of genomic diversity remain poorly understood when selection against deleterious mutations is weak to moderate, particularly when recombination is limited or absent. In this study, we extend an existing approach, the fitness-class coalescent, to incorporate arbitrary levels of purifying selection in haploid populations. This model offers a comprehensive framework for exploring the influence of purifying selection in a wide range of demographic scenarios. Moreover, our research reveals potential sources of qualitative and quantitative biases in demographic inference, highlighting the significant risk of attributing genetic patterns to past demographic events rather than purifying selection. This work expands our understanding of the complex interplay between selection, drift, and population dynamics, and how purifying selection distorts demographic inference.