Balancing biofuels and electrification: Carbon neutrality pathways of Brazilian light vehicle fleet

Abstract

This study evaluated pathways for Brazil’s light vehicle fleet to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, considering local benefits and existing technologies. Four scenarios explore government policies promoting biofuels and/or electrification. Results indicate a 74% increase in emissions under Business as Usual (BAU), requiring vast land for offsetting, versus a 62% reduction with Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Biofuels. Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) projections diverge by 2030, with higher costs for full electrification by 2050. Abatement costs favor the biofuels approach economically, emphasizing ethanol’s role as a carbon sink. Prioritizing plug-in hybrid vehicles with ethanol could leverage existing infrastructure and reduce battery imports, smoothing the transition to full electrification. The study highlights the economic and environmental trade-offs in Brazil’s journey to carbon neutrality, advocating for a balanced approach integrating biofuels and electrification to maximize benefits and ensure sustainability in the automotive sector.