Climate change and staple grain acreage: Regional adaptation in China's agricultural cluster

Abstract

Regional adaptability in staple grain production is fundamental to agricultural clustering, yet the impact of climate change on spatial distribution of grain cultivation remains understudied. This study uses recent county-level data from 2000 to 2019 in China and employs an empirical framework that incorporates 10-year averages of weather variables to analyze regional variations in grain acreage in response to changes in temperature and precipitation. Our findings reveal significant regional heterogeneity: increases in temperature and precipitation generally lead to an expansion of staple grain acreage in initially colder or drier regions. These findings remain robust after accounting for a range of confounding factors. Mechanism analysis indicates that these climate-induced changes in grain acreage stem from variations in land productivity. Furthermore, the study identifies shifts in comparative advantages among staple grains across regions: rising temperatures favor paddy over corn in colder regions and corn over wheat in warmer areas, while increased precipitation enhances corn's advantage over wheat in arid regions. These findings have important implications for designing effective adaptation policies to sustain grain production in China's agricultural clusters and ensure food security targets.