Lifetime exposure to health-related air pollutants in the United Kingdom: A spatiotemporal evaluation (1930–2010) through WRF-CMAQ modeling

Abstract

Historical air pollutants data are essential for assessing health effects of air pollution exposure across the life course or early life. In the United Kingdom (UK), a lack of high-quality data sources, including emission data, has resulted in limited research on historical air pollution exposure and the health effects. This study aimed to address this gap by developing Weather Research and Forecast (WRF)- Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQ) for particulate matters (PM), gaseous pollutants, and chemical compositions of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) at an annual level and 10 km resolution. The root mean squared error (RMSE) (normalized mean bias, NMB) between predictions from models and measurements from monitoring stations in 2010 was 4.09 (−0.10) for PM_2.5, 6.34 (−0.22) for PM₁₀, 17.49 (−0.24) for nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), 4.02 (0.13) for sulfur dioxide (SO₂), and 9.2 (0.11) for ozone (O₃) at annual level, and the predicting accuracy was consistent at annual level. The WRF-CMAQ could capture spatiotemporal patterns of the air pollutants. High concentrations of particulate matters and gaseous pollutants, except for ozone, tended to occur in UK densely populated cities such as Greater London. The Humber River estuary and the Mersey River port area had higher concentrations of SO₂. O₃ showed a geographical distribution that was higher in rural areas and lower in urban areas. The annual changes showed most of the areas of UK experienced a reduction of air pollution since 1990, with the exception of O₃ concentrations. Therefore, this research model could provide high-quality historical exposure data on air pollution, supporting future epidemiological studies on the impact of air pollution on the life course health effects in the UK.