Energy demand security in OPEC+ countries: A revised 4As framework beyond supply security

Abstract

Research predominantly focus on assessing energy supply security, with minimal emphasis on evaluating energy demand security, which is critical for the OPEC + countries. This paper introduces a revised 4As framework that extends beyond energy supply security to establish an Energy Demand Security Index (EDSI). The findings from the expert survey, which integrated the Delphi Method and AHP, emphasize the importance of resource endowment, the national economy's reliance on oil, and the diversification of oil exports in evaluating energy demand security. The results of the integrated ranking and dimensional analysis indicate that no surveyed nation demonstrated outstanding performance in all four dimensions. Algeria and Russia were identified as the top-ranking nations between 2010 and 2022. By employing matrix analysis and longitudinal group analysis, OPEC + countries were classified into three groups: stable (e.g., Algeria), rising (e.g., Saudi Arabia), and declining (e.g., Russia). Well-rounded performers are better equipped to handle the intricacies of energy demand security. Saudi Arabia's focus on diversification has helped to enhance its EDSI score, whereas Russia's decline is primarily affected by energy sanctions. The conclusions have important implications for shaping policies in countries that rely on energy exports for their sustainable development.