The trend in incidence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and its impact on cirrhosis and liver cancer: An analysis from Global Burden of Disease 2021

IF 3.2 3区医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Public Health Pub Date : 2025-03-03 DOI:10.1016/j.puhe.2025.02.028

Yu Gu , Chengnan Guo , Zhenqiu Liu , Yujiao Zhang , Xinyu Han , Xin Zhang , Shuzhen Zhao , Haili Wang , Tiejun Zhang

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Abstract

Objectives

We aimed to recognize the burden of NAFLD and support public health policy development for its prevention and management.

Study design

A cross-sectional analysis of GBD 2021 results was conducted.

Methods

We collected incidence data on NAFLD from 1990 to 2021 using Global Burden of Disease Study in 2021. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) in NAFLD age standardized incidence rate (ASR) were calculated to quantify the temporal trends in NAFLD ASR. Bayesian age-period-cohort models were constructed to project NAFLD incidence rates and cases up to 2050. Additionally, we assessed the percentage of cirrhosis and liver cancer attributable to NAFLD.

Results

Globally, the newly-occurred cases of NAFLD increased by 94.49 % from 24, 856, 159 in 1990 to 48, 353, 272 in 2021. The case number will further increase to 78,602,984 in 2050, and ASR will increase from 5.93 per 1000 in 2021 to 7.26 per 1000 in 2050. The most pronounced increases were observed in young people and men. In 2021, NAFLD accounted for 82.7 % of cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases and 8.0 % of liver cancer cases.

Conclusions

From 1990 to 2021, the incidence of NAFLD has been continuously increasing and is expected to continue rising until 2050. The increases in young people and men highlight their priority in future schedules. The rising proportions of cirrhosis and liver cancer caused by NAFLD further underscore the serious health risks.

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非酒精性脂肪肝的发病趋势及其对肝硬化和肝癌的影响：2021 年全球疾病负担分析

目的认识NAFLD的负担，支持制定预防和管理NAFLD的公共卫生政策。研究设计对GBD 2021结果进行横断面分析。方法采用2021年全球疾病负担研究（Global Burden of Disease Study）收集1990年至2021年NAFLD的发病率数据。计算NAFLD年龄标准化发病率（ASR）的估计年百分比变化（EAPCs），以量化NAFLD ASR的时间趋势。建立贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型来预测到2050年NAFLD的发病率和病例。此外，我们评估了由NAFLD引起的肝硬化和肝癌的百分比。结果在全球范围内，NAFLD新发病例从1990年的24856159例增加到2021年的48353272例，增加了94.49%。到2050年，病例数将进一步增加到78602984例，ASR将从2021年的5.93 / 1000增加到2050年的7.26 / 1000。在年轻人和男性中观察到最明显的增长。2021年，NAFLD占肝硬化和其他慢性肝病病例的82.7%，占肝癌病例的8.0%。结论从1990年到2021年，NAFLD的发病率持续上升，预计将持续上升至2050年。年轻人和男性的增加凸显了他们在未来日程安排中的优先地位。NAFLD引起的肝硬化和肝癌比例的上升进一步强调了严重的健康风险。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Public Health 医学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生

CiteScore

7.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

280

审稿时长

37 days

期刊介绍： Public Health is an international, multidisciplinary peer-reviewed journal. It publishes original papers, reviews and short reports on all aspects of the science, philosophy, and practice of public health.