{"title":"Macroeconomic uncertainty and monetary policy transmission in Brazil: a TVAR approach","authors":"Luckas Sabioni Lopes, Wilson Luiz Rotatori Corrêa","doi":"10.1080/02692171.2023.2240241","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This article assesses the impact of uncertainties on the effectiveness of monetary policy in Brazil after the adoption of the inflation-targeting regime. We employ the methodology of autoregressive vectors with an endogenous threshold (TVAR) with a general uncertainty indicator (IGI), proposed as a linear combination of four existing proxies for the Brazilian context. The sample covers 2003 to June 2022 at a monthly frequency. The results show the IGI variable has the highest degree of correlation with economic recessions in the country among all the analysed indicators. Moreover, in regimes of high uncertainty, the responses of the output gap, inflation, and inflationary expectations to interest rate shocks are severely reduced. Therefore, we conclude that an increase in macroeconomic uncertainties can reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy in Brazil.","PeriodicalId":51618,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Applied Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4000,"publicationDate":"2023-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Review of Applied Economics","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02692171.2023.2240241","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Abstract
ABSTRACT This article assesses the impact of uncertainties on the effectiveness of monetary policy in Brazil after the adoption of the inflation-targeting regime. We employ the methodology of autoregressive vectors with an endogenous threshold (TVAR) with a general uncertainty indicator (IGI), proposed as a linear combination of four existing proxies for the Brazilian context. The sample covers 2003 to June 2022 at a monthly frequency. The results show the IGI variable has the highest degree of correlation with economic recessions in the country among all the analysed indicators. Moreover, in regimes of high uncertainty, the responses of the output gap, inflation, and inflationary expectations to interest rate shocks are severely reduced. Therefore, we conclude that an increase in macroeconomic uncertainties can reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy in Brazil.
期刊介绍：
International Review of Applied Economics is devoted to the practical applications of economic ideas. Applied economics is widely interpreted to embrace empirical work and the application of economics to the evaluation and development of economic policies. The interaction between empirical work and economic policy is an important feature of the journal. The Journal is peer reviewed and international in scope. Articles that draw lessons from the experience of one country for the benefit of others, or that seek to make cross-country comparisons are particularly welcomed. Contributions which discuss policy issues from theoretical positions neglected in other journals are also encouraged.
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