Design of Risk Prediction Assessment for Ship-Integrated Electric Propulsion System

Abstract

A design of risk prediction assessment is proposed to improve the safety and economy of ship-integrated electric propulsion system(SIEPS). Firstly, the article puts forward a multihidden Markov model (MHMM)–Viterbi algorithm to predict fault state probabilities of each component in the continuous time points in the future. Secondly, according to the influence of dynamic ocean condition, the fault states of the components of SIEPS are predicted by using the MHMM–Viterbi algorithm. Thirdly, the risk assessment system of network topology of SIEPS is designed, and power flow analysis under the abnormal condition is repeatedly calculated by using the MonteCarlo simulation. Finally, the article takes a SIEPS as an example and the risk prediction assessment results is given. With the establishment of increasingly stringent standards by the International Maritime Organization in terms of ship emissions and the increasing scarcity of petroleum resources, electric propulsion systems are gradually replacing internal combustion engines, which will become the future direction of ship power development. Electric propulsion ships do have many advantages such as high efficiency, high automation, environmental protection, energy saving, and emission reduction. However, ship-integrated electric propulsion system(SIEPS) is also the soft underbelly of electric propulsion ships. First of all, the complexity of the external environment factors such as high humidity and high salinity of ships (especially marine vessels) under long-term operating conditions, and the coupling of electromagnetic, thermal, and vibration signals of SIEPS will increase the failure rate of electrical equipment, thereby increasing the risk of SIEPS. Secondly, for electric propulsion ships, the SIEPS risk is likely to lead to chain failure of important systems such as power, control, navigation, resulting in the ship. Equipment and even personnel cause irreparable damage, causing fatal damage to electric propulsion ships. Therefore, in order to improve the safety, reliability, and economy of electric propulsion ships, it is necessary to carry out research on relevant technologies for SIEPS risk assessment (Wen et al. 2012; Guangfu et al. 2013).