An extended SEIARD model for COVID-19 vaccination in Mexico: analysis and forecast

IF 0.4 Q4 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Mathematics in applied sciences and engineering Pub Date : 2021-04-09 DOI:10.1101/2021.04.06.21255039
A. M. G. Perez, D. A. Oluyori
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引用次数: 3

Abstract

In this study, we propose and analyze an extended SEIARD model with vaccination. We compute the control reproduction number Rc of our model and study the stability of equilibria. We show that the set of disease-free equilibria is locally asymptotically stable when Rc<1 and unstable when Rc>1, and we provide a sufficient condition for its global stability. Furthermore, we perform numerical simulations using the reported data of COVID-19 infections and vaccination in Mexico to study the impact of different vaccination, transmission and efficacy rates on the dynamics of the disease.
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墨西哥COVID-19疫苗接种的扩展SEIARD模型:分析和预测
在这项研究中,我们提出并分析了一个扩展的带有疫苗接种的SEIARD模型。我们计算了模型的控制复制数Rc,并研究了平衡点的稳定性。我们证明了无病平衡点集在Rc1时是局部渐近稳定的,并给出了其全局稳定的充分条件。此外,我们利用墨西哥报告的COVID-19感染和疫苗接种数据进行数值模拟,研究不同的疫苗接种、传播率和有效性对疾病动态的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.40
自引率
0.00%
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0
审稿时长
21 weeks
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