Corruption and Voter Turnout: Evidence From Second Generation Americans

IF 4.2 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Comparative Political Studies Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI:10.1177/00104140231169025
Joel W. Simmons
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Abstract

When studying corruption’s consequences for voter turnout, reverse causality hinders identification; corruption may affect turnout, but an engaged citizenry may also improve governance. However, because good instruments are hard to find, most studies do not adjust for the issue. Here, I surmount the endogeneity problem by predicting turnout among second generation Americans with the level of corruption in their ancestral country. The core intuition is that the best predictors of turnout—education, income, and civic duty—are endogenous to corruption, internationally mobile, and reproduced inter-generationally. Thus, corruption in one country can affect turnout among the American-born children of the country’s émigrés. However, because turnout in US elections does not affect corruption in the ancestral country, there is no threat of reverse causality. Estimating the model with data from the Current Population Survey and the Varieties of Democracy Project reveals a statistically robust, substantively sizable negative effect of corruption on turnout.
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腐败和选民投票率:来自第二代美国人的证据
在研究腐败对投票率的影响时,反向因果关系阻碍了识别;腐败可能会影响投票率,但公民的参与也可能改善治理。然而,由于很难找到好的仪器,大多数研究都没有针对这个问题进行调整。在这里,我通过预测第二代美国人在其祖籍国家的腐败程度的投票率来克服内生性问题。核心直觉是,投票率的最佳预测指标——教育、收入和公民义务——是腐败的内生因素、国际流动性和代际再生性。因此,一个国家的腐败会影响到在美国出生的该国公民子女的投票率。然而,由于美国选举的投票率并不影响其祖先国家的腐败,因此不存在反向因果关系的威胁。用当前人口调查和民主多样性项目的数据对模型进行估计,发现腐败对投票率的负面影响在统计上是稳健的,实质上是相当大的。
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来源期刊
Comparative Political Studies
Comparative Political Studies POLITICAL SCIENCE-
CiteScore
8.40
自引率
4.00%
发文量
69
期刊介绍: Comparative Political Studies is a journal of social and political science which publishes scholarly work on comparative politics at both the cross-national and intra-national levels. We are particularly interested in articles which have an innovative theoretical argument and are based on sound and original empirical research. We also encourage submissions about comparative methodology, particularly when methodological arguments are closely linked with substantive issues in the field.
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