Sea level variability at Colombo, Sri Lanka, inferred from the conflation of satellite altimetry and tide gauge measurements

Abstract

Accurate long-term measurements of sea level are fundamental to evaluating coastal risks, such as the impact of sea-level rise on near-shore ecosystems, groundwater dynamics, and coastal flooding. This study examines sea-level variability at Colombo, Sri Lanka using satellite altimetry, tide gauge measurements separately and their conflated solution under a single model. Modelling of conflated satellite altimetry and tide gauge measurements shows a geocentric (absolute) local sea-level rise of 3.56 ± 0.32 mm/y without any signature of a uniform acceleration since 1981 at this locality. The measurements disclosed statistically significant periodic changes in sea level of luni-solar origin. The conflated model solution enabled the estimation of a statistically significant in-situ vertical land motion (0.58 ± 0.19 mm/yr) without the aid of global positioning measurements. The conflation model explains 98% of the sea-level variability, which makes it suitable for accurate seal level predictions for coastal risk assessments in Colombo, Sri Lanka.