Case study on applying sequential analyses in operational testing

Abstract

Abstract Sequential analysis concerns statistical evaluation in which the number, pattern, or composition of the data is not determined at the start of the investigation, but instead depends on the information acquired during the investigation. Although sequential analysis originated in ballistics testing for the Department of Defense (DoD)and it is widely used in other disciplines, it is underutilized in the DoD. Expanding the use of sequential analysis may save money and reduce test time. In this paper, we introduce sequential analysis, describe its current and potential uses in operational test and evaluation (OT&E), and present a method for applying it to the test and evaluation of defense systems. We evaluate the proposed method by performing simulation studies and applying the method to a case study. Additionally, we discuss challenges to address for sequential analysis in OT&E. Lastly, while operational testing is the focus in this paper, the methodology presented is applicable to campaigns of experimentation and general testing across numerous disciplines.