{"title":"Confessions of a microsimulator: problems in modeling the demography of kinship.","authors":"S. Ruggles","doi":"10.1080/01615440.1993.9956352","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The author discusses problems involved in modeling the effects of demographic factors on historical kinship patterns with a focus on microsimulation models. \"Since microsimulations of kinship ignore the correlations in demographic behavior within kin groups they ordinarily understate the variance of kinship distributions; for many kin types they also underestimate the expected number of kin.\" The author concludes that \"those who design demographic models of kinship should be sensitive to the potential for systematic error.\" (EXCERPT)","PeriodicalId":45535,"journal":{"name":"Historical Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6000,"publicationDate":"1993-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/01615440.1993.9956352","citationCount":"35","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Historical Methods","FirstCategoryId":"98","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01615440.1993.9956352","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"历史学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"HISTORY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 35
Abstract
The author discusses problems involved in modeling the effects of demographic factors on historical kinship patterns with a focus on microsimulation models. "Since microsimulations of kinship ignore the correlations in demographic behavior within kin groups they ordinarily understate the variance of kinship distributions; for many kin types they also underestimate the expected number of kin." The author concludes that "those who design demographic models of kinship should be sensitive to the potential for systematic error." (EXCERPT)
期刊介绍:
Historical Methodsreaches an international audience of social scientists concerned with historical problems. It explores interdisciplinary approaches to new data sources, new approaches to older questions and material, and practical discussions of computer and statistical methodology, data collection, and sampling procedures. The journal includes the following features: “Evidence Matters” emphasizes how to find, decipher, and analyze evidence whether or not that evidence is meant to be quantified. “Database Developments” announces major new public databases or large alterations in older ones, discusses innovative ways to organize them, and explains new ways of categorizing information.