{"title":"The Fairy Tale of Low Inflation in the Euro Area","authors":"Martin Hochstein","doi":"10.1515/ev-2018-0025","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract There are strong indications that actual consumer inflation in the euro area is understated by official price measures. The exclusion of homeowner shelter costs and inadequate quality adjustments for certain basket items are among the reasons for a potential downward bias in Eurostat's Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, which would have widespread ramifications not only for consumers but also for the broader economy and financial markets. By focusing on the HICP as a yardstick for its primary objective of medium-term price stability, the European Central Bank relies on a too narrowly defined and error-prone inflation concept.","PeriodicalId":42390,"journal":{"name":"Economists Voice","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4000,"publicationDate":"2018-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/ev-2018-0025","citationCount":"1","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Economists Voice","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ev-2018-0025","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Abstract
Abstract There are strong indications that actual consumer inflation in the euro area is understated by official price measures. The exclusion of homeowner shelter costs and inadequate quality adjustments for certain basket items are among the reasons for a potential downward bias in Eurostat's Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, which would have widespread ramifications not only for consumers but also for the broader economy and financial markets. By focusing on the HICP as a yardstick for its primary objective of medium-term price stability, the European Central Bank relies on a too narrowly defined and error-prone inflation concept.
有强烈的迹象表明，欧元区的实际消费者通胀被官方价格指标低估了。欧盟统计局(Eurostat)的消费者价格协调指数(Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices)可能会出现向下倾斜，这不仅会对消费者产生广泛影响，还会对更广泛的经济和金融市场产生影响，原因之一是排除了房主住房成本，以及某些篮子项目的质量调整不足。欧洲央行将HICP作为衡量中期价格稳定这一主要目标的标准，依赖于一个定义过于狭隘且容易出错的通胀概念。
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