Macedonia's Ohrid Framework Agreement Reexamined in Response to Internal and External Crises: Reason for Cautious Optimism on Europe's Southeastern Border

Abstract

In recent years, a number of variables put Macedonia at an increased risk of instability. These factors include Macedonia’s tense relationship with Greece, the strain posed by the European migration crisis, the potential for escalation of simmering interethnic conflict within Macedonia’s borders, and Macedonia’s recent government scandals. Because of the security risks that an unstable Macedonia poses to the European Union (EU), it is crucial for the EU to seek new ways to bring Macedonia closer into the fray of European institutions. This Note assesses the continued durability of existing domestic and regional legal regimes to cope with the increased strain caused by the abovementioned destabilizing factors. The Note poses several ways in which the EU can use Membership to create a more durable legal regime in Macedonia; and it discusses some of the major impediments that the EU should consider when deciding the proper incentive structure to use in Membership discussions. Given Macedonia’s baseline for rule of law and proven desire to join the EU, there is reason for cautious optimism that Macedonia’s legal regime will remain durable if the EU uses the reward of EU accession tactfully in the coming years.