Democracy and Diversionary Conflict: External Transparency and Domestic Constraints

Abstract

This study examines two institutional explanations of the presence or absence of diversionary conflict. The two approaches emphasize different factors―external transparency and domestic constraints, respectively―in describing the relationship between domestic institutions and diversionary actions. Up to this point, they have not been compared theoretically and empirically in an explicit way. The present study contrasts their causal explanations and tests two competing sets of hypotheses, using cases derived from directed dyad-years from 1950 to 2000. The results show that either external transparency (strategic interaction) or internal constraints (domestic checks and balances) discourages diversionary conflict, and that mature democracies, domestically constrained and externally transparent, are least likely to initiate diversionary conflict.