Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on violent extremism and organized crime in the Republic of Serbia

Marija Đorić, Ilija Životić
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Abstract

The subject of research is the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on violent extremism and organized crime in the Republic of Serbia. The authors used the method of document content analysis and quantitative methods (surveys) for research purposes. The time of the research included the most intense period of the pandemic, and the authors investigated the situation in the Republic of Serbia from March 2020, when the virus was first registered, to mid-2021. The initial hypothesis in the research is that violent extremism and organized crime adapt very quickly to new social changes, which makes them resilient to many social crises. Serbia has a long history of fighting etno-separatist extremism (e.g. the KLA terrorist organization), but the COVID-19 pandemic has intensified the growth of other forms of extremism, such as religious, left-wing, while special attention is focused on right-wing extremism. Namely, the authors determined that in addition to the old generators (what is the post-conflict legacy), we also have two new crucial generators of the extreme right - the COVID-19 pandemic and the migrant crisis. All the fundamental issues on which the extreme right-wingers built their ideology (such as Kosovo and Metohija, the friend-enemy dichotomy) were pushed aside during the pandemic, in order to actualize the problems concerning the "infestation of migrants", conspiracy theories, vaccinations, 5G networks and of panic fear for the survival of the nation. Organized crime also found a way to adapt to the pandemic, and some new areas appeared that criminals quickly prioritized, such as the trade-in of deficient medical equipment, falsification of PCR tests, etc. Drug trafficking was particularly intense, and the Customs Administration seized during the pandemic from 01.03.2020 to 01.08.2021 5630.53 grams of cocaine, which is 60 percent more than in 2019; 2063 grams of heroin, which is a drop to only 5 percent of the total seizure in 2019. In the same period, 1,180 tablets of ecstasy and MDMA were seized, which is five times more than in 2019, as well as 36 weapons. The conclusion is that the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the change in the functioning of violent extremism and organized crime, thus confirming the initial hypothesis of the author, that these are "tough phenomena" that adapt very quickly and easily to emerging social crises. which is down to just 5 percent of total seizures in 2019. In the same period, 1,180 tablets of ecstasy and MDMA were seized, which is five times more than in 2019, as well as 36 weapons. The conclusion is that the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the change in the functioning of violent extremism and organized crime, thus confirming the initial hypothesis of the author, that these are "tough phenomena" that adapt very quickly and easily to emerging social crises. which is down to just 5 percent of total seizures in 2019. In the same period, 1,180 tablets of ecstasy and MDMA were seized, which is five times more than in 2019, as well as 36 weapons. The conclusion is that the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the change in the functioning of violent extremism and organized crime, thus confirming the initial hypothesis of the author, that these are "tough phenomena" that adapt very quickly and easily to emerging social crises.
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COVID-19大流行对塞尔维亚共和国暴力极端主义和有组织犯罪的影响
研究主题是2019冠状病毒病大流行对塞尔维亚共和国暴力极端主义和有组织犯罪的影响。作者采用文献内容分析法和定量方法(调查法)进行研究。研究的时间包括大流行最激烈的时期,作者调查了塞尔维亚共和国从2020年3月首次登记该病毒到2021年中期的情况。这项研究的最初假设是,暴力极端主义和有组织犯罪能够非常迅速地适应新的社会变化,这使他们能够抵御许多社会危机。塞尔维亚在打击民族分裂主义极端主义(如科索沃解放军恐怖组织)方面有着悠久的历史,但2019冠状病毒病大流行加剧了宗教、左翼等其他形式极端主义的增长,同时对右翼极端主义给予了特别关注。也就是说,作者确定,除了旧的产生因素(什么是冲突后遗产)之外,我们还有两个新的极端右翼的重要产生因素——COVID-19大流行和移民危机。在大流行期间,极右翼分子建立其意识形态的所有基本问题(如科索沃和梅托希亚,友敌二分法)都被搁置一边,以实现有关“移民入侵”、阴谋论、疫苗接种、5G网络和对民族生存的恐慌恐惧等问题。有组织犯罪也找到了适应这一流行病的方法,犯罪分子似乎很快将一些新领域列为优先事项,例如以旧换新、伪造聚合酶链反应检测等。毒品贩运尤其严重,海关总署在2020年1月3日至2021年1月8日大流行期间缉获了5630.53克可卡因,比2019年增加了60%;2063克海洛因,这一数字下降到2019年缉获总量的5%。在同一时期,缴获了1180片摇头丸和摇头丸,是2019年的5倍多,还有36件武器。结论是,2019冠状病毒病大流行对暴力极端主义和有组织犯罪的运作变化产生了重大影响,从而证实了提交人的最初假设,即这些是“棘手的现象”,能够非常迅速和容易地适应新出现的社会危机。这一比例降至2019年总缉获量的5%。在同一时期,缴获了1180片摇头丸和摇头丸,是2019年的5倍多,还有36件武器。结论是,2019冠状病毒病大流行对暴力极端主义和有组织犯罪的运作变化产生了重大影响,从而证实了提交人的最初假设,即这些是“棘手的现象”,能够非常迅速和容易地适应新出现的社会危机。这一比例降至2019年总缉获量的5%。在同一时期,缴获了1180片摇头丸和摇头丸,是2019年的5倍多,还有36件武器。结论是,2019冠状病毒病大流行对暴力极端主义和有组织犯罪的运作变化产生了重大影响,从而证实了提交人的最初假设,即这些是“棘手的现象”,能够非常迅速和容易地适应新出现的社会危机。
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审稿时长
16 weeks
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Local elections in the Republic of Serbia 2016 and 2020: Political consequences of lowering the electoral threshold Russia's position in the multipolar world and Serbia's strategic options Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on violent extremism and organized crime in the Republic of Serbia Između institucionalizacije i uzajamnog uništenja - Kostić-Šulejić Marina: Strateška stabilnost u multipolarnom svetu, Institut za međunarodnu politiku i privredu, Beograd, 2022 Sociocultural conceptualization of fear
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