Assessment of long-term changes in the surface air temperature from the High Arctic archipelago Franz Joseph Land from 1929 to the present (2017)

Abstract

Electronic archives of data from standard meteorological observations (mean daily/monthly surface air temperatures - SAT) at the meteorological stations at Bukhta Tikhaya (Hooker Island, 1929-1960) and Krenkel Observatory (Hayes Island, 1957-2017) on Franz Josef Land (FJL) are presented. Parallel data series of SAT made in 1958 and 1959 on both meteorological stations were analyzed. Linear regression equations used for extrapolation of observational data representative for Krenkel Observatory for the period 1929-1957 are also presented. The assessment of long-term changes in SAT on FJL was carried out based on the analysis of the obtained series (1929-2017). The main conclusions that follow from our study are: (1) The total warming in the FJL archipelago was 1.6-1.8°C (0.2°C/decade) for the entire available period of instrumental observations (1929-2017); (2) The highest rates of warming were recorded in March-April and amounted to 0.6°C/decade; (3) A particular strong warming has been observed since the 1990s. The annual temperature increased by 6.3°C (2.2°C/decade) for the period 1990-2017 and 5.2°C (2.9°C/decade) for the period 2000-2017; (4) For the period 1990-2017 the maximum rate of warming occurred between October to February with 4.4°C/decade; (5) For the period 2000-2017 the maximum rate of warming occurred between January to April and from November to December with 5.6°C/decade; (6) The dominant seasons of the year are winter (November-April), spring (May), summer (June-September) and autumn (October); (7) Over the entire observation period the largest temperature increase was observed in the winter season. During the period of modern warming (1990-2017), the largest temperature increase was observed in winter and autumn.