Application of system dynamics model for reservoir performance under future climatic scenarios in Gelevard Dam, Iran

Abstract

This study aimed to investigate the effects of climate change scenarios on five indicators: reliability, vulnerability, resilience, sustainability, and the deficiency of the Gelevard Dam (GD) in Iran. Downscaling was performed from 2020 to 2040 in the future using the Can Ems2-GCM based on different climate scenarios and employing the support vector machines. The IHACRES model was used to simulate the inflow of GD. The cultivation pattern optimization function was performed by utilizing the LINGO software. Similarly, the flow-storage model was created using Vensim software. The results demonstrated the reduction of inflow by 15, 36, and 37% during RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The results showed that if the optimal cultivation pattern (OCP) were to be applied, during different climatic scenarios, water supply would not be difficult in the next 11, 5, and 4 years, respectively, yet after that, water shortage would gradually appear. The findings concluded that although the implementation of OCP would improve the five indicators in all water consumption sectors, the GD reservoir would not be able to answer the demands in the future. Therefore, it would be necessary to implement practices to increase water productivity in all sectors.