World crude oil supply: Evidence from estimating supply functions by country

Abstract

This paper estimates crude oil supply functions for 41 countries to garner evidence on whether such functions are expanding or contracting. Poor data quality dictates a simple specification. The results show 26 countries with statistically significant shifts in supply functions—in almost equal parts expansionary and contractionary. Others show no evidence of decline. The conclusion is that a gloomy outlook for non-OPEC supply is not warranted.