Analysis of gray-Markov forecasting for traffic accidents in highway tunnel group region

Wei Zhan, Q. Lü, Y. Shang
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

Based on the original data of traffic accidents in a typical highway tunnel group region, a grey forecasting model, which is modified by residual error model, is proposed to analyze the development trend of traffic accidents in highway tunnel group region. The forecasting accuracy is improved by introducing Markov optimization. Compared with commonly used forecasting method, the proposed method in this paper has a better forecasting accuracy and practicality in a period. It can be used for the forecasting analysis of traffic accidents and for security early warning in highway tunnel group region. Language: zh
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公路隧道群区交通事故的灰色马尔可夫预测分析
基于典型公路隧道群区域交通事故的原始数据,提出了一种基于残差模型修正的灰色预测模型,用于分析公路隧道群区域交通事故的发展趋势。通过引入马尔可夫优化,提高了预测精度。与常用的预测方法相比,本文提出的方法具有更好的预测精度和周期内的实用性。该模型可用于公路隧道群区交通事故预测分析和安全预警。语言:zh型
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