TOWARDS UNDERSTANDING CRITICAL TRANSITIONS IN WARFARE

IF 0.3 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Obrana a Strategie-Defence & Strategy Pub Date : 2022-06-15 DOI:10.3849/1802-7199.22.2022.01.055-074
Miha Šlebir
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Abstract

In recent decades, the systems approach has become the dominant school of thought to the theoretical understanding of warfare. Within systems theory, the insights of complex (adaptive) systems theory have proved particularly important, enabling us to deepen our understanding of warfare by drawing on knowledge that has been applied in many other disciplines. This paper seeks to improve the understanding of warfare and upgrade it with the concepts of attractor and critical transition. The main idea is that a degradation of a crucial subsystem leads to a phase transition (a significant decrease of combat power) and thus to a shift from one to another strange attractor, i.e., to an alternative relatively stable state. The theoretical framework has been supported by a case study of the first phase of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
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理解战争中的关键转变
近几十年来,系统方法已成为战争理论理解的主要思想流派。在系统理论中,复杂(自适应)系统理论的见解已被证明是特别重要的,它使我们能够通过借鉴应用于许多其他学科的知识来加深对战争的理解。本文试图用吸引子和临界过渡的概念来提高对战争的认识,并使之升级。主要思想是,一个关键子系统的退化导致相变(战斗力显著下降),从而从一个奇怪的吸引子转移到另一个奇怪的吸引子,即,到另一个相对稳定的状态。这一理论框架得到了对俄罗斯2022年入侵乌克兰第一阶段的案例研究的支持。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
0.20
自引率
50.00%
发文量
15
审稿时长
16 weeks
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