État des connaissances et incertitudes sur le changement climatique induit par les activités humaines

Abstract

During the 20th century, the mean temperature of the air at the ground level has increased by 0.6±0.2 °C and the warmest air temperatures occurred after 1980. These were significantly warmer than those of the last millennium. Simultaneously, rain and drought, cold and heat wave frequencies have changed, mountain glaciers retreated and the sea-level increased by ∼10 cm. This warming was at least in part induced by human activities and will continue during the next decades. Its amplitude will depend on the rate of greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosols emissions, i.e. on energetic scenarios. Pending scientific uncertainties include cloud variations and interactions between the physical parts of the climate system and the biogeochemical cycles and the biosphere.