Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Spread Model with Vaccine Administration and Use of Masks

Khofifah Ichawati, B. Prawoto
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Abstract

The purpose of this study was to construct and determine the dynamics of the mathematical model of the reach of SARS-CoV-2 with the provision of vaccines and the use of masks. In this study, the modified SEIR model was used with the stages of conducting a literature study on mathematical modeling of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, compiling initial assumptions, making compartment diagrams, constructing mathematical models, determining equilibrium points, determining basic reproduction numbers, conducting stability analysis and synchronization of analysis results by performing numerical simulations. In this study, two equilibrium points were obtained the disease-free equilibrium point and the endemic equilibrium point. Using the basic reproduction number, we get the stability conditions for the disease-free point and the endemic point. When the disease-free point is stable, SARS-CoV-2 will disappear from the population, while when the disease-free point unstable, SARS-CoV-2 will be exist’s in the population.
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疫苗接种和口罩使用对SARS-CoV-2传播模型的影响
本研究的目的是建立并确定SARS-CoV-2在提供疫苗和使用口罩的情况下传播范围的数学模型的动态。本研究采用改进的SEIR模型,从文献研究SARS-CoV-2病毒数学建模、编制初始假设、绘制隔室图、构建数学模型、确定平衡点、确定基本繁殖数、进行稳定性分析、通过数值模拟同步分析结果等阶段进行。本研究得到两个平衡点:无病平衡点和地方病平衡点。利用基本繁殖数,得到了无病点和地方病点的稳定条件。当无病点稳定时,SARS-CoV-2将从人群中消失,当无病点不稳定时,SARS-CoV-2将在人群中存在。
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审稿时长
8 weeks
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