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The Legislative Framework in the UK on the Use of IT Technologies in Law Enforcement 英国在执法中使用资讯科技的立法架构
Pub Date : 2021-04-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3862317
Evgenia Postoeva, V. Vasyukov
The abstract of the report examines the legislative framework in the UK on the use of IT technologies in law enforcement.
该报告的摘要审查了英国在执法中使用信息技术的立法框架。
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引用次数: 0
Unintended Consequences of Water Policy and Law 水政策和法律的意外后果
Pub Date : 2021-04-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3830042
V. Sutton
The water cycle including its oceans, surface water, wetlands, water vapor, clouds and groundwater has resulted in a patchwork of statutes and regulations that fail to address true protection of water resources. This is not a simple "fix" and requires Congressional positivism rather than decades of relying on the judicial branch to resolve statutes that are ultimately not designed for true water protection. The unintended consequences of this choice of policy resolution has had profound negative effects on water resources and it is increasingly urgent to address this complex problem and avert a water resources disaster.
包括海洋、地表水、湿地、水蒸气、云和地下水在内的水循环导致了法律和法规的拼凑,未能解决真正保护水资源的问题。这不是一个简单的“修复”,需要国会的积极态度,而不是几十年来依靠司法部门来解决最终不是为真正的水资源保护而设计的法规。这种政策决议的选择所产生的意想不到的后果对水资源产生了深远的负面影响,因此日益迫切需要解决这一复杂问题并避免水资源灾难。
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引用次数: 0
Oil Shocks, External Adjustment, and Country Portfolio 石油冲击、外部调整和国家投资组合
Pub Date : 2021-04-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3829510
Liugang Sheng, Hongyan Zhao
This study examines the intertemporal nature of countries’ external adjustment by using two oil income shocks with different timings: giant oil discovery news shocks and contemporaneous oil revenue shocks from international oil price changes. Empirical estimates using a large panel of countries support the intertemporal theory. Net foreign assets hike immediately upon oil revenue shocks, but decline for the first 5 years after oil discoveries and rebound subsequently. These adjustments are largely through the current account but partially stabilized by valuation effects for oil revenue shocks. Oil discoveries attract FDI inflows, while oil revenue shocks increase foreign debt assets holdings.
本研究通过使用两种不同时间点的石油收入冲击:巨大的石油发现新闻冲击和国际油价变化带来的同期石油收入冲击,来检验国家外部调整的跨期性质。使用一个大型国家小组的经验估计支持跨期理论。外国净资产在石油收入受到冲击时立即上升,但在发现石油后的前5年下降,随后反弹。这些调整主要通过经常账户进行,但部分因石油收入冲击的估值影响而稳定下来。石油发现吸引外国直接投资流入,而石油收入冲击增加了外国债务资产持有量。
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引用次数: 0
Does Environmental Pollution Promote China’s Crime Rate? A New Perspective Through Government Official Corruption 环境污染促进了中国的犯罪率吗?政府官员腐败的新视角
Pub Date : 2021-04-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3825324
Haitao Wu, Yufeng Xia, Y. Hao, Siyu Ren
Environmental pollution and its effects have attracted increasing attention, but few studies have examined the impact of environmental pollution on the crime rate. This study adopted panel data of 30 provinces in China for the period 2005 to 2016 to examine the relationship between environmental pollution and the crime rate. In addition, a mediating effect model is used to study the mechanism through which environmental pollution influences the crime rate. This study considers the threshold effect of government official corruption on the link between environmental pollution and the crime rate. The generalized method of moments and a newly developed dynamic threshold panel model are employed to manage potential endogeneity problems. The estimation results indicate that environmental pollution significantly promotes China’s crime rate. Environmental pollution can indirectly affect the crime rate through residents' health level, education level and inequality. The magnitude of the effect of environmental pollution on the crime rate will be greater after corruption reaches the threshold value. Regional heterogeneity analysis shows that a significant positive impact of environmental pollution on the crime rate exists in the eastern and western regions of China but not in the middle region. Based on the findings, we propose a series of policy implications to reduce criminal activities in China from the perspective of environmental pollution.
环境污染及其影响越来越受到人们的关注,但很少有研究考察环境污染对犯罪率的影响。本研究采用2005 - 2016年中国30个省份的面板数据来检验环境污染与犯罪率之间的关系。此外,本文采用中介效应模型研究了环境污染对犯罪率的影响机制。本研究考虑了政府官员腐败对环境污染与犯罪率关系的阈值效应。采用广义矩量法和新建立的动态阈值面板模型来处理潜在的内生性问题。结果表明,环境污染对中国的犯罪率有显著的促进作用。环境污染可以通过居民的健康水平、教育水平和不平等间接影响犯罪率。腐败达到阈值后,环境污染对犯罪率的影响程度会更大。区域异质性分析表明,环境污染对中国东部和西部地区犯罪率有显著的正向影响,而对中部地区没有显著的正向影响。在此基础上,本文从环境污染的角度提出了一系列减少中国犯罪活动的政策建议。
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引用次数: 12
Heterogeneous Effects of Missing Out on a Place at a Preferred Secondary School in England 在英国,与心仪中学失之交交处的异质性影响
Pub Date : 2021-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/J.ECONEDUREV.2021.102082
E. Gorman, I. Walker
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引用次数: 3
Modeling Inter-Regional Patient Mobility: Does Distance Go Far Enough? 区域间患者流动性建模:距离是否足够远?
Pub Date : 2021-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3820470
Michael Irlacher, Dieter Pennerstorfer, A. Renner, Florian Unger
Gravity models are extremely popular to investigate economic interactions across space. Bilateral flows are usually available as regionally aggregated data only, while information on demand and supply is often available at a finer spatial scale. We suggest using this information to calculate a measure of spatial accessibility based on the two-step floating catchment area method to augment the gravity equation. We apply this idea to analyze patient mobility by using easily available and spatially explicit information on physicians' locations (supply) and grid-level population data (demand). Our approach improves the model’s fit and allows conducting a rich set of simulation experiments.
重力模型在研究跨空间经济相互作用方面非常受欢迎。双边流量通常仅作为区域汇总数据提供,而关于需求和供应的信息往往在更精细的空间尺度上提供。我们建议利用这些信息计算基于两步浮动集水区法的空间可达性测度,以扩充重力方程。我们通过使用医生位置(供应)和网格级人口数据(需求)等易于获得的空间明确信息,将这一想法应用于分析患者的流动性。我们的方法改善了模型的拟合,并允许进行丰富的模拟实验。
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引用次数: 0
The Economic Impact of Volatility Persistence on Energy Markets 波动性持续对能源市场的经济影响
Pub Date : 2021-03-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3726089
Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos, Alice Thomas, Jian-xin Wang
This study examines the role of daily volatility persistence in transmitting information from macro-economy in the volatility of energy markets. In crude oil and natural gas markets, macro-economic factors, such as the VIX, the credit spread and the Baltic exchange dirty index, impact volatility, and this impact is channeled via the volatility persistence. Further, the impact of returns and variances is primarily transmitted to volatility via the daily volatility persistence. The dependence of volatility persistence on market and macro-economic conditions is termed conditional volatility persistence (CVP). The variation in daily CVP is economically significant, contributing up to 17% of future volatility and accounting for 25% of the model's explanatory power. Inclusion of the CVP in the model significantly improves volatility forecasts. Based on the utility benefits of volatility forecasts, the CVP adjusted volatility models provide up to 160 bps benefit to investors compared to the HAR models, even after accounting for transaction costs and varying trading speeds.
本研究探讨能源市场波动中每日波动持续度对宏观经济信息传递的作用。在原油和天然气市场,宏观经济因素,如波动率指数,信贷利差和波罗的海交易所肮脏指数,影响波动性,而这种影响是通过波动性的持久性引导的。此外,收益和方差的影响主要通过每日波动持续性传递给波动性。波动持续性对市场和宏观经济条件的依赖性被称为条件波动持续性(conditional volatility persistence, CVP)。日CVP的变化在经济上意义重大,对未来波动率的贡献高达17%,占模型解释能力的25%。在模型中加入CVP显著改善了波动性预测。基于波动率预测的效用效益,与HAR模型相比,CVP调整的波动率模型为投资者提供了高达160个基点的收益,即使在考虑了交易成本和不同的交易速度之后。
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引用次数: 0
Oil and Mortality 石油与死亡
Pub Date : 2021-03-17 DOI: 10.31014/AIOR.1992.04.01.337
B. Sanginabadi
This paper investigates the impacts of a large and exogenous oil price shock in December 1973 on mortality rates of the major oil producer nations of the Middle East and North Africa. We use longitudinal data from 1960 to 2014 and we apply the difference-in-differences approach to investigate the main question of the research. Our findings show that the oil price shock did not lead to higher GDP per capita, but it did lead to lower mortality. These findings are puzzling. A possible explanation is that the oil price shock allowed for higher spending on publicly funded health care. We find a positive impact of the oil price increase on the number of hospital beds which perhaps suggests that higher oil revenues increased spending on public health and that possibly decreased mortality.
本文研究了1973年12月一次巨大的外生石油价格冲击对中东和北非主要石油生产国死亡率的影响。我们使用1960年至2014年的纵向数据,并采用差异中的差异方法来调查研究的主要问题。我们的研究结果表明,油价冲击并没有导致人均GDP的提高,但它确实导致了死亡率的降低。这些发现令人费解。一种可能的解释是,油价冲击使得公共医疗保健支出增加。我们发现油价上涨对医院病床数量的积极影响,这可能表明更高的石油收入增加了公共卫生支出,并可能降低死亡率。
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引用次数: 1
The Community Explorer: Informing Policy with County-Level Data 社区探索者:用县级数据通知政策
Pub Date : 2021-02-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3793214
C. Lopez, Brittney Butler
This report proposes a new approach to investigate US health disparities that focuses on understanding populations' specificities before looking at their health profile. It first identifies the US's different populations or communities based on their behavioral, demographic, economic, and social profiles. Then it links these profiles to chronic disease prevalence rates.
本报告提出了一种新的方法来调查美国的健康差异,重点是了解人口的特殊性,然后再研究他们的健康状况。它首先根据不同的行为、人口、经济和社会特征来识别美国不同的人口或社区。然后将这些资料与慢性病患病率联系起来。
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引用次数: 0
Implications of an Infrastructure Corridor for Alberta’s Economy 基础设施走廊对艾伯塔省经济的影响
Pub Date : 2021-02-16 DOI: 10.11575/SPPP.V14I.70651
Trevor Tombe, Alaz Munzur, G. Fellows
The benefits of increased pipeline access for Alberta’s economy are well known. The benefits of infrastructure corridors, however, go far beyond pipelines. By reducing interprovincial and international trade costs, multi-modal infrastructure corridors of road, rail, utilities and communications can potentially create large economic benefits. In this paper, we quantify the potential economic gains in Alberta from reductions in trade costs and identify the importance of improved access to lower cost transportation options like rail for select commodities. Combining rich data on interprovincial trade flows with mode-specific shipment data on volumes, values, and shipment costs, we find that rail shipments are a lower cost means of exporting goods for long-distance trade. We estimate increased rail penetration lowers trade costs by roughly 0.3 per cent for each percentage point of rail’s share of shipments. We also estimate economic gains from lower trade costs. We find that lowering trade costs substantially increases Alberta’s real GDP through its effect on international and interprovincial trade flows. Infrastructure capacity is particularly valuable, as we find that increasing the share of exports shipped by rail by ten percentage points may increase Alberta’s GDP by nearly 1.5 per cent in the short-run and over 2.5 per cent in the long-run — equivalent to over $9 billion per year in economic activity.
增加输油管道对阿尔伯塔省经济的好处是众所周知的。然而,基础设施走廊的好处远不止管道。通过降低省际和国际贸易成本,公路、铁路、公用事业和通信等多式联运基础设施走廊有可能创造巨大的经济效益。在本文中,我们量化了阿尔伯塔省从降低贸易成本中获得的潜在经济收益,并确定了改善获得低成本运输选择(如铁路)的重要性。结合丰富的省际贸易流量数据和具体运输方式的数量、价值和运输成本数据,我们发现铁路运输是一种成本较低的出口长途贸易货物的方式。我们估计,铁路普及率的提高,在货运中所占份额每增加一个百分点,贸易成本就会降低大约0.3%。我们还估计了贸易成本降低带来的经济收益。我们发现,通过降低贸易成本对国际和省际贸易流动的影响,大大增加了阿尔伯塔省的实际GDP。基础设施能力尤其有价值,因为我们发现,通过铁路运输的出口份额增加10个百分点,可能会使阿尔伯塔省的GDP在短期内增加近1.5%,在长期内增加2.5%以上-相当于每年超过90亿美元的经济活动。
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引用次数: 1
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Political Economy - Development: Public Service Delivery eJournal
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