{"title":"Bringing Inflation Back Under Control","authors":"Elena Bobeica, Sarah Holton, G. Koester","doi":"10.2478/ie-2023-0028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ie-2023-0028","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":35662,"journal":{"name":"Intereconomics","volume":"77 1","pages":"136 - 141"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81438239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"What Profit-Price Spirals Are Telling Us About Post-Pandemic Inflation","authors":"J. Bivens","doi":"10.2478/ie-2023-0034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ie-2023-0034","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":35662,"journal":{"name":"Intereconomics","volume":"63 1","pages":"167 - 168"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73604972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Inflation Strikes Back: How to Restore Control","authors":"","doi":"10.2478/ie-2023-0026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ie-2023-0026","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":35662,"journal":{"name":"Intereconomics","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90101039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
While macroprudential policy has mostly focused on the role of banks, we argue that pension funds are also important for financial stability. Drawing on previous research on pension funds, we explain how their actions can have a vital impact on other financial institutions as well as on households and firms. Using the UK gilt crisis as a case in point, we recommend widening the scope for macroprudential policy to reflect the significance of pension funds for financial stability.
{"title":"Pension Funds and Financial Stability: The Case of the UK Gilt Crisis","authors":"Jon Gudjonsson, Svend E. Hougaard Jensen","doi":"10.2478/ie-2023-0032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ie-2023-0032","url":null,"abstract":"While macroprudential policy has mostly focused on the role of banks, we argue that pension funds are also important for financial stability. Drawing on previous research on pension funds, we explain how their actions can have a vital impact on other financial institutions as well as on households and firms. Using the UK gilt crisis as a case in point, we recommend widening the scope for macroprudential policy to reflect the significance of pension funds for financial stability.","PeriodicalId":35662,"journal":{"name":"Intereconomics","volume":"100 1","pages":"155 - 159"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74472559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The task of central banks is to keep prices stable. The current resurgence of inflation could thus be regarded as nothing more than central banks engaging in their normal job. However, this time is different in that the current bout of inflation arrives after a long period of too low inflation and, moreover, low inflation which persisted despite years of very loose monetary policies, a period which one contribution to this issue’s Forum characterises as the “Great Monetary Expansion”.
{"title":"The Political and Technical Aspects of Controlling Inflation","authors":"D. Gros","doi":"10.2478/ie-2023-0027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ie-2023-0027","url":null,"abstract":"The task of central banks is to keep prices stable. The current resurgence of inflation could thus be regarded as nothing more than central banks engaging in their normal job. However, this time is different in that the current bout of inflation arrives after a long period of too low inflation and, moreover, low inflation which persisted despite years of very loose monetary policies, a period which one contribution to this issue’s Forum characterises as the “Great Monetary Expansion”.","PeriodicalId":35662,"journal":{"name":"Intereconomics","volume":"47 1","pages":"133 - 135"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72583983","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Monetary historians writing later in this century may refer to its first two decades as the period of the Great Monetary Expansion. In those years, world central banks embarked on the biggest monetary easing ever recorded in central banking history.1 The full panoply of monetary policy instruments was used, and new instruments were invented for that purposes: repurchase operations at all maturities, limitless extension of the collateral lists, outright purchases of all types of securities, announcements of future (expansionary) actions, and negative rates. Modalities varied a bit here and there but all in all, it was a globally consistent, strong and temporally sustained phase of monetary easing.
{"title":"Reversing the Great Monetary Expansion","authors":"Ignazio Angeloni","doi":"10.2478/ie-2023-0029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ie-2023-0029","url":null,"abstract":"Monetary historians writing later in this century may refer to its first two decades as the period of the Great Monetary Expansion. In those years, world central banks embarked on the biggest monetary easing ever recorded in central banking history.1 The full panoply of monetary policy instruments was used, and new instruments were invented for that purposes: repurchase operations at all maturities, limitless extension of the collateral lists, outright purchases of all types of securities, announcements of future (expansionary) actions, and negative rates. Modalities varied a bit here and there but all in all, it was a globally consistent, strong and temporally sustained phase of monetary easing.","PeriodicalId":35662,"journal":{"name":"Intereconomics","volume":"19 1","pages":"142 - 147"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78719864","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, global factors have played a much more important role in shaping inflation dynamics than over the previous two decades. As a result, global monetary tightening has been synchronised to an unprecedented degree, bringing to the fore the importance of cross-country monetary policy spillovers through aggregate demand, exchange rate and financial channels. After reviewing recent inflation developments, the article discusses how exchange rate spillovers can put upward pressure on the inflation outlook complicating the assessment of the ECB’s monetary policy stance.
{"title":"Global Inflation and Global Monetary Policy Tightening: Implications for the Euro Area","authors":"R. Moessner, Dora Xia, Fabrizio Zampolli","doi":"10.2478/ie-2023-0031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ie-2023-0031","url":null,"abstract":"Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, global factors have played a much more important role in shaping inflation dynamics than over the previous two decades. As a result, global monetary tightening has been synchronised to an unprecedented degree, bringing to the fore the importance of cross-country monetary policy spillovers through aggregate demand, exchange rate and financial channels. After reviewing recent inflation developments, the article discusses how exchange rate spillovers can put upward pressure on the inflation outlook complicating the assessment of the ECB’s monetary policy stance.","PeriodicalId":35662,"journal":{"name":"Intereconomics","volume":"63 1","pages":"151 - 154"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74320474","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This article uses Aufbau Ost (or reconstruction of the East) of the new German states as a structural model to estimate the possible costs of an Aufbau Ost 2.0 of Ukraine while taking institutional differences into account. Based on three approaches, the model is validated for the new German states – namely capital coefficients, actual investment flows and actual public transfers – and applied to Ukraine. Key indicators for Germany from 2021 are used as a basis. The economic goal for Ukraine set in this article is to reach Poland’s present level of prosperity in 15 years, which implies a growth rate of 9% per year. This will require a total of US $8.5 trillion over 15 years, which can, however, be financed to a considerable extent by endogenous, investment-driven economic growth if the institutional framework conditions are designed in a market-economy way, especially the taxation system. Transfers and capital imports must close a current account deficit of about US $200 billion per year.
{"title":"What Can Ukraine Learn from Aufbau Ost?","authors":"U. Blum","doi":"10.2478/ie-2023-0023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ie-2023-0023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article uses Aufbau Ost (or reconstruction of the East) of the new German states as a structural model to estimate the possible costs of an Aufbau Ost 2.0 of Ukraine while taking institutional differences into account. Based on three approaches, the model is validated for the new German states – namely capital coefficients, actual investment flows and actual public transfers – and applied to Ukraine. Key indicators for Germany from 2021 are used as a basis. The economic goal for Ukraine set in this article is to reach Poland’s present level of prosperity in 15 years, which implies a growth rate of 9% per year. This will require a total of US $8.5 trillion over 15 years, which can, however, be financed to a considerable extent by endogenous, investment-driven economic growth if the institutional framework conditions are designed in a market-economy way, especially the taxation system. Transfers and capital imports must close a current account deficit of about US $200 billion per year.","PeriodicalId":35662,"journal":{"name":"Intereconomics","volume":"23 1","pages":"119 - 126"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75519096","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Climate and environmental issues will likely impact the financial system’s stability as they become more pervasive and tangible. As a result, the appropriate financial regulatory and supervisory measures must be in place. This article discusses the challenges faced by financial institutions and the financial system due to the materialisation of climate and environmental risks and the shortcomings in current prudential frameworks. The arguments presented suggest that if the fundamental goal of the Paris Agreement-aligned transition is to phase out coal-fired energy, reduce oil and gas use, and transform carbon-intensive businesses, improving bank governance supervision and/or fostering climate-related disclosure requirements may not be enough. A critical role is instead played by capital requirements that adequately consider climate risks. Moreover, since microprudential tools are typically focused on direct exposures, they may not be sufficient to address the systemic dimension of climate risks. Macroprudential measures should therefore not be overlooked.
{"title":"Are Current Prudential Frameworks Up to the Challenge of Climate Risks?","authors":"Paola D’Orazio","doi":"10.2478/ie-2023-0020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ie-2023-0020","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Climate and environmental issues will likely impact the financial system’s stability as they become more pervasive and tangible. As a result, the appropriate financial regulatory and supervisory measures must be in place. This article discusses the challenges faced by financial institutions and the financial system due to the materialisation of climate and environmental risks and the shortcomings in current prudential frameworks. The arguments presented suggest that if the fundamental goal of the Paris Agreement-aligned transition is to phase out coal-fired energy, reduce oil and gas use, and transform carbon-intensive businesses, improving bank governance supervision and/or fostering climate-related disclosure requirements may not be enough. A critical role is instead played by capital requirements that adequately consider climate risks. Moreover, since microprudential tools are typically focused on direct exposures, they may not be sufficient to address the systemic dimension of climate risks. Macroprudential measures should therefore not be overlooked.","PeriodicalId":35662,"journal":{"name":"Intereconomics","volume":"79 1","pages":"96 - 101"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79447142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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