混合物的关键窗口变量选择:估计多种空气污染物对死产的影响。

IF 1.3 4区 数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Annals of Applied Statistics Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI:10.1214/21-aoas1560
Joshua L Warren, Howard H Chang, Lauren K Warren, Matthew J Strickland, Lyndsey A Darrow, James A Mulholland
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引用次数: 0

摘要

了解时变污染混合物对人类健康的作用至关重要,因为人们在其一生中同时暴露于多种污染物。对于有明确暴露期的脆弱亚人群(如孕妇),关于暴露于这些混合物的关键窗口期的问题对于减轻危害很重要。我们通过引入混合的临界窗口变量选择(CWVSmix),将临界窗口变量选择(CWVS)扩展到多污染物设置,这是一种分层贝叶斯方法,结合了平滑变量选择和时间相关的权重参数,以便:(i)确定接触时变污染物混合物的关键窗口,(ii)估计每种污染物的时变相对重要性及其在混合物中的一级相互作用,以及(iii)量化混合物对健康的影响。通过仿真,我们表明CWVSmix在这些类别中提供了与竞争方法相比的最佳性能平衡。使用这些方法,我们调查了2005-2014年新泽西州暴露于多种环境空气污染物对死产风险的影响。我们发现非西班牙裔黑人母亲在妊娠2、16-17和20周的风险持续升高,污染混合物主要是铵(第2、17、20周)、硝酸盐(第2、17周)、氮氧化物(第2、16周)、PM2.5(第2周)和硫酸盐(第20周)。该方法在R包CWVSmix中可用。
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CRITICAL WINDOW VARIABLE SELECTION FOR MIXTURES: ESTIMATING THE IMPACT OF MULTIPLE AIR POLLUTANTS ON STILLBIRTH.

Understanding the role of time-varying pollution mixtures on human health is critical as people are simultaneously exposed to multiple pollutants during their lives. For vulnerable subpopulations who have well-defined exposure periods (e.g., pregnant women), questions regarding critical windows of exposure to these mixtures are important for mitigating harm. We extend critical window variable selection (CWVS) to the multipollutant setting by introducing CWVS for mixtures (CWVSmix), a hierarchical Bayesian method that combines smoothed variable selection and temporally correlated weight parameters to: (i) identify critical windows of exposure to mixtures of time-varying pollutants, (ii) estimate the time-varying relative importance of each individual pollutant and their first order interactions within the mixture, and (iii) quantify the impact of the mixtures on health. Through simulation we show that CWVSmix offers the best balance of performance in each of these categories in comparison to competing methods. Using these approaches, we investigate the impact of exposure to multiple ambient air pollutants on the risk of stillbirth in New Jersey, 2005-2014. We find consistent elevated risk in gestational weeks 2, 16-17, and 20 for non-Hispanic Black mothers, with pollution mixtures dominated by ammonium (weeks 2, 17, 20), nitrate (weeks 2, 17), nitrogen oxides (weeks 2, 16), PM2.5 (week 2), and sulfate (week 20). The method is available in the R package CWVSmix.

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来源期刊
Annals of Applied Statistics
Annals of Applied Statistics 社会科学-统计学与概率论
CiteScore
3.10
自引率
5.60%
发文量
131
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Statistical research spans an enormous range from direct subject-matter collaborations to pure mathematical theory. The Annals of Applied Statistics, the newest journal from the IMS, is aimed at papers in the applied half of this range. Published quarterly in both print and electronic form, our goal is to provide a timely and unified forum for all areas of applied statistics.
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