Disasters and corruption: public expectations and tolerance—evidence from Mexico

Disaster corruption is a vexing problem, damaging state legitimacy and exacerbating human suffering. Mexico has a history of both major disasters and persistently high levels of corruption. A magnitude 7.1 earthquake in 2017 provided an opportunity to study change over time in expectations and tolerance of corruption in disaster relief. Twenty years earlier, Mexico City residents expected, on average, essentially three out of 10 hypothetical trucks loaded with humanitarian assistance to be lost to corruption but expressed near zero tolerance of such conduct. By 2018–19, Mexico City residents expected more than one-half of all relief, six out of 10 trucks, to be stolen, and could tolerate three out of 10 trucks being pilfered. Similar results were found at the national level. Hence, Mexicans appear to be giving up on the state. Addressing corruption in disaster risk reduction and humanitarian relief specifically might provide a template for improving public trust across other state institutions.