Association between brain volume and disability over time in multiple sclerosis.

Background: Most previous multiple sclerosis (MS) brain atrophy studies using MS impact scale 29 (MSIS-29) or symbol digit modalities test (SDMT) have been cross-sectional with limited sets of clinical outcomes.

Objectives: To investigate which brain and lesion volume metrics show the strongest long-term associations with the expanded disability status scale (EDSS), SDMT, and MSIS-29, and whether MRI-clinical associations vary with age.

Methods: We acquired MRI and clinical data from a real-world Swedish MS cohort. FreeSurfer and SPM Lesion Segmentation Tool were used to obtain brain parenchymal, cortical and subcortical grey matter, thalamic and white matter fractions as well as T₁- and T₂-lesion volumes. Mixed-effects and rolling regression models were used in the statistical analyses.

Results: We included 989 persons with MS followed for a median of 9.3 (EDSS), 10.1 (SDMT), and 9.3 (MSIS-29) years, respectively. In a cross-sectional analysis, the strength of the associations of the MRI metrics with the EDSS and MSIS-29 was found to drastically increase after 40-50 years of age. Low baseline regional grey matter fractions were associated with longitudinal increase of EDSS and physical MSIS-29 scores and decrease in SDMT scores and these atrophy measures were stronger predictors than the lesion volumes.

Conclusions: The strength of MRI-clinical associations increase with age. Grey matter volume fractions are stronger predictors of long-term disability measures than lesion volumes.