甘肃省能源消费、经济增长与环境污染:基于1990-2009年的证据

Yongping Bai, F. Cai
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引用次数: 2

摘要

本文运用协整检验、向量误差修正模型(VECM)、格兰杰因果关系检验和方差分解方法(VD)对1990-2009年20年间甘肃省能源消费、GDP与环境污染的相互作用及其特征进行了实证研究。实证结果表明,经济增长与能源消费之间存在长期均衡关系,但这种均衡关系很弱,尚未形成有利关系;能源消费与环境污染、经济增长与环境污染之间存在单向因果关系,能源消费和经济增长对环境污染有显著的正向影响,且影响呈递增趋势,但甘肃省短期内难以减少环境污染排放。
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Energy consumption, economic growth and environmental pollution in Gansu Province: Evidence from 1990–2009
This paper applies the Co-integration Tests, Vector Error Correction Model(VECM), Granger Causality Relationship Test and Variance Decomposition Method(VD) to examine the interactions and characteristics of energy consumption, GDP and environmental pollution in Gansu Province for the 20 years from 1990-2009. The empirical results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth and energy consumption, but it is very weak and the beneficial relationship between them has not been formed; and it exists the one-way causality between energy consumption and environmental pollution, economic growth and environmental pollution, energy consumption and economic growth have significant positive effect on the environmental pollution, and the effect is increasing, but it is difficult to reduce the environmental pollution emissions in the short term in Gansu Province.
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