马来西亚建筑业与制造业联动的实证分析(2000-2010)

R. Khan, Z. Ghazali, M. S. Liew
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引用次数: 1

摘要

建筑业和制造业是马来西亚经济的关键部门。这些部门在马来西亚的社会经济发展中发挥着重要作用,为马来西亚经济创造了大量收入,并为许多熟练、半熟练、非熟练、受过教育和未受过教育的人提供了就业机会。建筑业和制造业通过它们的前向和后向联系紧密相连。本研究的目的是通过使用复杂的计量经济学方法来衡量马来西亚建筑业和制造业之间的因果关系和联系。运用格兰杰因果检验和向量自回归(VAR)技术确定两个部门之间的因果关系,衡量一个部门产出变化对另一个部门产出的影响。研究结果表明,在2000-2010年的研究期间,马来西亚建筑业和制造业之间存在很强的相关性和双向因果关系。建筑业需要大约21个月的时间来应对来自制造业的冲击,而制造业的反应时间为15个月。
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An empirical analysis of linkage between the construction and manufacturing sectors of Malaysia (2000–2010)
Construction and manufacturing are the key sectors of Malaysian economy. These sectors play significant role in socio economic development of Malaysia, generate substantial amount of revenue for Malaysian economy and provide employment opportunities to number of skilled, semi-skilled, unskilled, educated and uneducated people. Construction and manufacturing sectors are greatly interlinked with each other through their backward and forward linkages. The purpose of this study is to measures the causal relationship and linkage between construction and manufacturing sectors of Malaysia by using sophisticated econometric approach. Granger causality test and the vector auto regression (VAR) technique is used to determine the causal relationship between the two sectors and measure the effect of changes in output of one sector on the output of other sector. The results of the study show that there is strong correlation and bidirectional causal relationship exists between the construction and manufacturing sector of Malaysia during the study period 2000–2010. The construction sector takes approximately 21 months to respond the impact of shocks coming from manufacturing sector while the manufacturing sector responding time is 15 months.
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