基于工业电相关拓扑的产业结构演化分析

Junhong Tian, Junbo Wu, Lu Gao, Zixun Zheng, Bo Wu, Bingxu Hou, Zhuo Yang, Haobo Ma
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引用次数: 0

摘要

随着国家碳中和政策的推进,GS的能源消费结构和产业结构发生了巨大变化。及时、可靠地预测区域产业结构变化对区域发展规划具有重要意义。工业用电特性是对生产经营状况的实时、客观的反馈。因此,通过分析工业用电的相关规律,可以得出产业结构的演变趋势。挖掘电力数据的社会经济价值,建立一套基于工业电力关联拓扑的区域产业结构分析框架。首先,在中心性分析的基础上,从电力消费关联度的角度得出区域产业中心。其次,通过曲线聚类分析得出不同行业的发展趋势。最后,通过工业电力的拓扑分析,为分析不同时期区域产业结构的转型升级过程提供动力视角。2010 - 2020年GS行业用电量分析结果表明,随着国家政策和碳中和政策的推动和实施,GS大部分行业整体呈上升趋势,制造业多元化、集群化发展特征明显。与此同时,一方面,国民经济对传统高耗能产业的依赖程度仍然很高。另一方面,高污染工业的淘汰取得了显著成效。研究结论可为政府精准治理提供能量辅助。
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Analysis on the Evolution of Industrial Structure Based on Industrial Electricity Correlation Topology
With the promotion of the national carbon neutrality policy, GS's energy consumption structure and industrial structure have changed dramatically. Timely and reliable prediction of the changes of regional industrial structure plays an important role in regional development planning. Industrial electricity consumption characteristics are real-time and objective feedback of production and operation status. Therefore, analyzing the correlation law of industrial electricity can obtain the evolution trend of industrial structure. This paper excavates the socio-economic value of electricity data and establishes a set of analysis framework of regional industrial structure based on industrial electricity correlation topology. Firstly, based on centrality analysis, the regional industry center is obtained from the perspective of power consumption correlation. Secondly, the trends of development in different industries are obtained by curve clustering analysis. Finally, through the topological analysis of industrial electricity, it provides a power perspective to analyze the transformation and upgrading process of regional industrial structure in different periods. The analysis results of the electricity consumption of GS's industries from 2010 to 2020 show that with the promotion and implementation of the national policy and carbon neutrality policy, most industries in GS shows an overall upward trend, and the diversified and Clustered Development Characteristics of the manufacturing industry are obvious. At the same time, on one hand, the national economy is still highly dependent on traditional high energy consuming industries. On the other hand, the elimination of highly polluting industries has achieved remarkable results. The research conclusion can provide energy assistance for the government's precise governance.
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