竞选活动中的声誉冲击和战略应对

Rubén Poblete-Cazenave
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引用次数: 2

摘要

影响候选人声誉的信息可能会对选举产生重大影响。候选人对信息的发布有反应吗?利用巴西选举和审计作为外生信息来源,我表明,当有害信息影响现任者的声誉时,现任者和挑战者都会增加竞选支出。相反,有益的信息会减少候选人的支出。主要渠道是信息影响选举的预期竞争力,从而影响候选人的支出。只有在竞选活动之前披露的信息才会影响竞选支出。此外,在职者还通过增加(减少)不利(有利)声誉冲击时的受益人来适应有条件的现金转移计划。
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Reputation shocks and Strategic Responses in Electoral Campaigns
Information affecting a candidate's reputation might have significant electoral consequences. Do candidates respond to the release of information? Using Brazilian elections and audits as an exogenous source of information, I show that both incumbent and challenger increase their campaign spending when detrimental information affects the incumbent's reputation. Conversely, beneficial information decreases candidates' spending. The main channel is that information affects the expected competitiveness of elections and, therefore, candidates' spending. Only information disclosed before electoral campaigns impacts campaign spending. Furthermore, incumbents also adapt a conditional cash transfers program by increasing (decreasing) the beneficiaries when detrimental (beneficial) reputation shocks occur.
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