俄罗斯对亚洲的重新定位:原因和战略意义

A. Korolev
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引用次数: 22

摘要

本研究采用新古典现实主义框架来探讨俄罗斯最近“亚洲再定位”的原因和后果。基于对在俄罗斯进行的出版物和实地调查的分析,本文考察了导致俄罗斯外交政策发生这一重要变化的国际体制因素和俄罗斯国内因素。在体制层面,俄罗斯转向亚洲可以被理解为其对抗美国单极统治的长期运动的一部分。在单位层面上,发展俄罗斯东部领土的经济需求,加上后苏联身份形成的复杂社会政治过程,形成了有利于亚洲导向政策的政治环境。俄罗斯对亚洲的重新定位不仅意味着与中国、韩国或日本等特定的亚洲大国进行全面的战略合作,而且意味着俄罗斯作为欧亚大国的“重塑”。考虑到俄罗斯的跨大陆扩张以及经济和军事能力,它重新转向亚洲可能会对当前世界体系的力量平衡产生重大影响。
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Russia's Reorientation to Asia: Causes and Strategic Implications
This research applies a neoclassical realist framework to explore the causes and consequences of Russia's recent “reorientation to Asia.” Based on an analysis of publications and fieldwork conducted in Russia, the paper examines both the international systemic and the Russian domestic factors that have contributed to this important change in Russia's foreign policy. At the system level, Russia's turn to Asia can be understood as a part of its longer campaign of balancing against American unipolar domination. At the unit level, economic demands to develop Russia's eastern territories, together with the complex socio-political processes of post-Soviet identity formation, generated a political environment that was conducive to Asia-oriented policies. Russia's reorientation to Asia implies not only comprehensive strategic cooperation with specific Asian powers, such as China, South Korea, or Japan, but also a “reinvention” of Russia as a Eurasian power. Given Russia's cross-continental spread and economic and military capabilities, its reorientation to Asia may have significant implications for the balance of power in the current world system.
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