技术创新扩散模型与高技术风险度量方法

Yanfang Wang, Xiaojie Zhou
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引用次数: 0

摘要

技术创新的扩散是指技术创新通过某种方式在潜在用户之间传播。由于技术创新对生产率的影响取决于其扩散的速度和范围,因此技术创新的扩散是技术创新理论的重要组成部分。本文证明了基本s型扩散函数关于其拐点是对称的,并对Fishes-prr模型作了一些讨论。将现代风险度量方法中的单一投资风险评价方法和投资方案比较选择方法应用于高新技术投资,并举例分析了高新技术创新项目的风险度量。这对风险投资决策具有重要价值。
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Diffusion Model of Technology Innovation and High-tech Risk Measurement Method
Diffusion of technology innovation is the dissemination of the technology innovation among the potential users by some means. Since the effect of technology innovation to productivity depends on the speed and range of its diffusion, the diffusion of technology innovation is an important component of technology innovation theory. In this paper, it is proved that the basic S-type diffusion function is symmetric about its inflection point, and some discussion is made on Fishes-prr model. Furthermore, the single investment risk evaluation method and comparison and selection method of investment scheme in modern risk measurement methods are employed to high-tech investment, and some instances are illustrated to analyze the risk measure of the high-tech innovation projects. This is of much value for risk investment decision-making.
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