俄中政治关系的经济预测——伊尔库茨克地区与中国各省对外贸易合作的特点与发展前景

A. Lapshin, D. Miroshnikov, D. Safronov, E. Y. Buneeva
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摘要

俄罗斯和中国之间的政治关系总是对国家和地区层面的外贸关系指标的动态产生模棱两可的影响。对于伊尔库茨克地区所属的跨境地区来说,与俄罗斯在乌克兰的特殊军事行动有关的国家之间明确或隐含的政治和经济“振动”,反过来又直接或间接地影响该地区与中国各省的贸易状况。伊尔库茨克地区长期以来一直是与中华人民共和国东北各省对外贸易关系两极分化的中心之一。但是,鉴于伊尔库茨克地区国际经济关系“西方-东方”的解构日益加剧,进一步实施俄罗斯联邦对外贸易政策的“东方方向”具有高度重要性,其在中短期俄中话语趋势中的地位、作用和地位问题正在实现,以确定伊尔库茨克地区对外经济空间的发展前景。本文分析了伊尔库茨克地区与中国各省之间对外贸易关系的动态,以便在俄中关系地缘政治和地缘经济转型的条件下,找出该地区的传统惯性和修正因素,进一步适应该地区。根据研究结果,我们得出结论,伊尔库茨克地区与中国东北省份之间的双边关系中,生产能力水平与经济需求之间的矛盾正在出现,尽管如此,这并不妨碍伊尔库茨克地区相对于东部经济区其他地区保持领先地位,但表明了现有联系的加强和地理多样化。
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Economic Projection of Political Relations between Russia and China on the Features and Prospects of Development of Foreign Trade Cooperation of the Irkutsk Region with the Provinces of China
Political relations between Russia and China have always had ambiguous consequences for the dynamics of indicators of foreign trade relations at both national and regional levels. For cross-border regions, to which the Irkutsk Region belongs, explicit and implicit political and economic "vibrations" between countries, in connection with Russia's special military operation in Ukraine, in turn, directly and indirectly affect the state of the region's trade with the provinces of the PRC. The Irkutsk Region has long been one of the centers of polarization of foreign trade relations with the Northeastern Provinces of the People's Republic of China. But given the high degree of importance of further implementation of the "eastern direction" of the foreign trade policy of the Russian Federation due to the increasing deconstruction of international economic relations “West-East” for the Irkutsk region, the question of its place, role and status in the trends of Russian-Chinese discourse in the near and medium term is being actualized to determine the prospects for the development of the external economic space of the Irkutsk region. The article analyzes the dynamics of foreign trade relations between the Irkutsk region and the provinces of China in order to identify regional traditionally inertial and corrective factors for further adaptation of the region in the conditions of geopolitical and geo-economic transformation of relations between Russia and China. Based on the results of the study, conclusions are formulated about the emerging contradictions between the level of production capabilities and economic needs in bilateral relations between the Irkutsk Region and the Northeastern Provinces of the PRC, which nevertheless do not prevent the preservation of the leading positions of the Irkutsk region relative to other regions of the eastern economic zone, but suggest the intensification of existing ties and their geographical diversification.
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