中国的政策体制正在转变

Hao-yang Jia
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摘要

利用考虑货币和财政政策相互作用并允许均衡不确定性的估计DSGE模型,我发现被动货币和被动财政政策制度最适合中国经济。然而,如果在经济中引入货币,2012年前后的情况将有所不同。具体来看,2012年之前中国的货币政策是积极的,财政政策是被动的,2012年之后中国的货币政策是被动的,财政政策是被动的。此外,根据模型,政府支出对2012年前后的影响不同。
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Policy Regime Shifts In China
Using an estimated DSGE model with monetary and fiscal policy interactions and allowing for equilibrium indeterminacy, I find that a passive monetary and passive fiscal policy regime fits Chinese economy best. However, if money is introduced in the economy, things would be different before and after 2012. Specifically, the active monetary and passive fiscal policy prevailed before 2012 and passive monetary and passive fiscal policy fitted after 2012 in China. Besides, government spending has different impact before and after 2012 according to the model.
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