基于Blinder-Oaxaca分解的首尔公寓价格指数建立新方法

Hyung Joon Chung, Jihee Ann
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摘要

我们基于双向Blinder-Oaxaca (BO)分解的Fisher理想聚合,即FIBO指数,建立了首尔的房价指数。将BO分解应用于公寓市场,将城市间平均房价的差异分解为两部分:(i)由于区域间住房特征的差异而产生的差异(禀赋效应)和(ii)由于这些特征的隐含价格的区域间差异而产生的差异(系数效应)。FIBO指数以2017 ~ 2022年首尔地区公寓的实际交易数据为基础,根据推测的系数效应构建而成。稳健性检验表明,我们的方法受样本量变化和参考文献选择的影响要小得多。我们还发现FIBO指数比现有指数更准确地反映了公寓价格的实际运动和波动,这表明FIBO指数可以作为一个很好的补充房价指数。
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A New Approach to Establishing an Apartment Price Index in Seoul based on Blinder-Oaxaca Decomposition
We establish a house price index for Seoul based on a Fisher Ideal aggregation of a two-way Blinder-Oaxaca (BO) decomposition, the FIBO index. Applying the BO decomposition to the apartment market decomposes the intercity differences in the mean house prices into two parts: (i) differences that are due to the differences in housing characteristics across areas (endowment effects) and (ii) differences that arise from the interarea differences in implicit prices of those characteristics (coefficient effects). Using actual transaction data for apartments in Seoul from 2017 to 2022, the FIBO index is constructed based on the estimated coefficient effects. Robustness tests show that our method is far less influenced by changes in sample sizes and selection of the reference. We also show that the FIBO index more accurately reflects the actual movement and fluctuation of apartment prices compared to existing indices, which suggests that the FIBO index could serve as a good complementary house price index.
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