贝叶斯网络中信念随时间更新的工具

Jie Yang, C. Mohan, K. Mehrotra, P. Varshney
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引用次数: 3

摘要

我们开发了一种工具,可以随着时间的推移动态更新信念。该工具解决了可能包含循环的定向概率推理网络,并考虑了与观察和决策相关的时间延迟。在相同的应用中,不同观察者的相关性可能以不同的速率衰减,并且对假设的信念向相关的先验概率衰减。已经实现了具有少量参数的简单模型,具有便于更改图形模型的结构和参数以及相关条件概率的用户界面。
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A tool for belief updating over time in Bayesian networks
We have developed a tool that facilitates dynamically updating beliefs with time. This tool addresses directed probabilistic inference networks that may contain cycles, and takes into account the time delays associated with observations and decisions. Relevance of different observers may decay at different rates in the same application, and the belief in a hypothesis decays towards the associated prior probability. Simple models with few parameters have been implemented, with a user interface that facilitates changes to the structure and parameters of the graphical model, and associated conditional probabilities.
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